Formula decoded in simpler terms in more precise and specific acts :
The difference between confidence and over confidence is the difference between winning or losing .. it is the same difference as believing that your are going to win and yet knowing that losing isn't a distant possibility either ..so the only thing that will make a difference between whether you loose or win against an equally skilled opponent is your belief in yourself and you being cautious every step  and not let your gaurd down against your own goal post .. Always know your opponent .. always enjoy a challenge...!! and always believe that you can win ....!! cause the truth is .. you always can win .. there is always  50 percent chance ,,,,!!! even against a higher skilled person than you ... when you go against him you still have 50 percent chance to win ,,,,!! there are a ton of things that can go wrong with him ,,, if only you stay positive about your 50 percent chance